The 2026-27 college basketball season is shaping up to be an intriguing one, with a host of decisions looming over the next few months. The deadline for early entrants to withdraw from the NBA Draft and retain NCAA eligibility is fast approaching, and the choices made by these players will have a significant impact on the upcoming season. Here's a look at some of the key decisions and the potential implications for the upcoming season.
The Impact of NIL Opportunities
One of the most notable trends in college basketball over the past few years has been the rise of NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) opportunities. This has made returning to school a far more viable option for many players, and the number of underclassmen declaring for the NBA Draft has steadily declined since 2021. This shift in the landscape of college basketball has created a new dynamic, with players weighing their options more carefully and considering the potential benefits of staying in school.
The Top 10 Decisions to Watch
10. Ebuka Okorie, Stanford
Okorie was one of the best pure scorers in college basketball this past season, leading the ACC with 23.2 points per game as a freshman. If he returns to college, he'll look to expand his game beyond scoring and help guide his team to an NCAA Tournament appearance. Stanford has been relatively quiet in the transfer portal, so Okorie's return would be a significant boost for the Cardinal.
9. Allen Graves, Santa Clara
Graves is seen as a stronger NBA Draft prospect than his production might suggest during the 2025-26 college season. If he returns to college, he would likely make the jump to a Power 4 program in search of a starting role and more on-ball responsibility. This could be a significant development for Santa Clara, as Graves would be a key piece in their lineup.
8. Meleek Thomas, Arkansas
Thomas is an NBA first-round talent who averaged 15.6 points per game as a freshman, though he was often viewed as secondary to Darius Acuff Jr. in Arkansas' offense. If he returns, he would likely step into a featured role for the Razorbacks. Arkansas is adding freshmen Abdou Toure and Jordan Smith to the backcourt, but the loss of D.J. Wagner and Acuff positions Thomas as the go-to option with a young supporting cast around him.
7. Tyler Tanner, Vanderbilt
Tanner was one of the most improved players in college basketball last season, jumping from 5.7 points and 1.9 assists per game to 19.5 and 5.1, respectively, as a sophomore at Vanderbilt. If he returns for his junior year, he could emerge as one of the top guards in the SEC. His return would give Vanderbilt a strong backcourt, especially with the additions of Missouri transfer T.O. Barrett and Washington State transfer Ace Glass.
6. John Blackwell, Wisconsin
Blackwell was one of the top scoring guards in the country last season, averaging 19.1 points per game as a junior at Wisconsin. He has since committed to transfer to Duke for his senior year while also testing the NBA Draft waters. If Blackwell returns to college and suits up for the Blue Devils, Duke could boast one of the most loaded backcourts in the nation. His return would give him the opportunity to further develop as an initiator, facilitator, and defender, which could help improve his NBA stock.
5. Rueben Chinyelu, Florida
Chinyelu's return to Florida would significantly boost the Gators' chances of getting back to the national championship after failing to advance past the first weekend in 2026. Florida already returns forwards Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon, but neither provides the same level of defensive presence that Chinyelu does. For a Florida team that was ranked No. 1 in FOX Sports' Casey Jacobsen's Post-Portal Top 25, Chinyelu's return would only solidify that projection.
4. Morez Johnson Jr., Michigan
Johnson would significantly boost Michigan's chances of defending its 2026 national title. He was one of the most improved players in college basketball last season, averaging 13.1 points and 7.8 rebounds per game as a sophomore, yet was often just the Wolverines' third or fourth option. If he returns, and Mara stays in the draft, Johnson could step into a featured role in the frontcourt. A rotation of Johnson, Thiam, and Estrella would be as formidable as any in the country.
3. Aday Mara, Michigan
Mara's return to Michigan would put the Wolverines firmly in the national title conversation. He boosted his NBA Draft stock with a standout run, leading Michigan to the 2026 national championship. As the most highly touted prospect in this group, a return to college would be surprising, but if he does come back, Michigan would have an even deeper frontcourt than it did last season. The Wolverines added Moustapha Thiam and J.P. Estrella through the transfer portal and could also welcome back Morez Johnson Jr. The ability to rotate those three alongside Mara would give Michigan a potentially dominant interior presence.
2. Jeremy Fears Jr., Michigan State
Fears' decision could make or break Michigan State's ceiling. This past season, Fears was the Spartans' only true initiator on offense. He is a reliable perimeter defender and, in many ways, an extension of head coach Tom Izzo on the floor. Fears averaged 15.2 points per game and led the nation with 9.4 assists, earning first-team All-Big Ten honors. Those are not easy numbers to replace, and Michigan State has not added any guards through the transfer portal. If Fears remains in the NBA Draft, it would leave a significant hole in the Spartans' backcourt.
1. Milan Momcilovic, Iowa State
Momcilovic could raise a team's ceiling to that of a national title contender if he decides to return, as few players possess his unique skill set. The 6-foot-8 forward averaged 16.9 points per game for the Cyclones in 2026 and led the nation in 3-point shooting at 48.8%. With many top programs having already allocated the bulk of their NIL budgets, the pool of teams that can realistically afford Momcilovic might be limited. But if he does decide to return to college, whatever team he lands with will immediately become a legitimate threat entering the 2026-27 season.
The Broader Implications
These decisions will have a significant impact on the upcoming season, with some teams poised to take a step forward and others facing significant challenges. The rise of NIL opportunities has created a new dynamic in college basketball, with players weighing their options more carefully and considering the potential benefits of staying in school. The choices made by these players will shape the landscape of the sport for years to come, and it will be fascinating to see how the season unfolds as a result.
