Bold reality check: Christmas Day may not be the picture-perfect holiday weather many hope for, with the forecast leaning unsettled in several regions.
With just eight days left until Christmas, we’re entering the narrow window where forecast reliability is highest. While projections can still shift, the east coast currently looks like the best bet for a drier, calmer day.
The week leading up to Christmas has been rainy and windy, driven by a cool layer aloft over central New Zealand that’s kept conditions volatile.
MetService warns there’s a real risk of thunderstorms for parts of the day from South Auckland down to mid-Canterbury.
MetService meteorologist John Law told RNZ that the unsettled pattern is likely to persist through Wednesday.
Some flashes of weather activity today! ⛈️
⚡Good morning. We’ve recorded lightning near coastal Taranaki and Waitomo in the past hour. See the video below for a quick glimpse.
⚡Stay updated on our moderate-risk zones (30-60% likelihood) and the rest of today’s thunderstorm outlook here: … pic.twitter.com/FK9dniIaiq
— MetService NZ (@MetService) December 16, 2025
Law notes that conditions should improve for places like Auckland and along the western coastline as we move toward tomorrow, but the overall week remains markedly unsettled.
The big question on everyone’s mind is the Christmas Day forecast.
“The million-dollar question is how things will pan out in the lead-up to Christmas,” Law says.
“…I don’t think we’re going to see a neatly settled day that many are hoping for.”
He explains that west-to-east low-pressure systems pull the country into a predominantly westerly setup next week.
Westerly winds typically bring more cloud and longer periods of rain to the western South Island. In the North Island, the farther west you go, the higher the chance of overcast skies and possible showers, Law explains.
As Christmas Day approaches, the east coast emerges as the more favorable location for better weather.
MetService’s current Christmas Day outlook cites temperatures in the 20s across much of the country.
Christmas Day forecasts from MetService:
- Auckland: High 25°C, Low 17°C
- Tauranga: High 25°C, Low 16°C
- Hamilton: High 24°C, Low 13°C
- Wellington: High 20°C, Low 14°C
- Christchurch: High 23°C, Low 11°C
- Dunedin: High 19°C, Low 11°C
- Invercargill: High 17°C, Low 9°C
However, forecasts beyond a week are inherently uncertain, and Law cautions that changes are very possible.
So, while the current outlook isn’t set in stone, it’s wise to monitor updates closely as Christmas nears and adjust plans if needed.
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